Fairfax County Real Estate Market Update Winter 2027 | Samantha Bard
Winter is a quieter season for real estate, and that makes it a great time to look closely at the numbers. The latest data shows a Fairfax County real estate market where prices are still rising, more homes are listed, and buyers are moving more carefully. Mortgage rates above 7% are a big part of that story. Samantha Bard, REALTOR® ABR|SRS with Coldwell Banker Realty, has helped buyers and sellers across Fairfax County full time since 2010. This update pulls together the most recent Bright MLS figures for Fairfax County, regional data from the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS® (NVAR), Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey, and Fairfax County's own tax and assessment numbers. Each point below explains what the trend means if you plan to buy or sell this winter or early spring. All figures are the latest full-month data available at the time of writing, so check back for updates.
10 Things to Know About the Fairfax County Housing Market This Winter
1. The Median Sold Price Is Up 5.6% From Last Year
The median sold price in Fairfax County was $749,750 in September 2026, up 5.6% from September 2025, based on Bright MLS data. That figure covers all property types in the county and does not include the City of Fairfax, which is reported separately.
A median reflects the mix of homes that sold in a given month. If more detached homes close, the median rises even when individual home values are flat. So treat it as a general direction, not a price tag for your home.
For sellers, the takeaway is that values have held up well. Buyers are still paying for homes that are priced in line with recent comparable sales.
2. Year-to-Date Prices Show a Slower, Steadier Climb
Looking at January through September 2026, Fairfax County recorded 9,374 closed sales with a median sold price of $770,000. That's up 1.9% from the same period in 2025. The higher year-to-date median reflects the spring months, when more detached homes typically sell.
The single-month jump in September looks bigger than the full-year trend. Over nine months, prices rose modestly rather than sharply.
This is helpful context if you're setting expectations. Steady appreciation is still appreciation, but it's a different market from the double-digit gains some owners remember from a few years ago.
3. More Homes Are on the Market
Fairfax County had 2,326 active listings at the end of September 2026. Across NVAR's Northern Virginia region, which includes Fairfax County, active listings were up 30.7% from a year earlier to 3,477. After several years of very tight supply, that's the biggest shift in the market right now.
For buyers, more listings means more choice. You can compare homes side by side and take a little more time to decide without losing every home to a quick multiple-offer situation.
For sellers, it means more competition. Preparation, presentation, and pricing matter more than they did in 2023 or 2024.
4. The Market Still Leans Toward Sellers
Months of supply measures how long it would take to sell every active listing at the current pace. Using September's numbers, Fairfax County had roughly 2.6 months of supply (2,326 listings divided by 897 closed sales). NVAR reported 2.5 months for the Northern Virginia region, compared with 4.8 months nationally.
A common rule of thumb puts a balanced market at around five to six months of supply. By that measure, Fairfax County is still a seller's market, just a less intense one than before.
In practice, well-priced homes in popular price ranges can still draw multiple offers. Homes that are overpriced or need work tend to sit longer and see price adjustments.
5. Pending Sales Dropped Nearly 19%
New pending sales in Fairfax County fell 18.7% year over year to 846 in September 2026. Closed sales for the month came in at 897. Pending sales are worth watching closely because they point to closings one to two months later.
A drop that size suggests closings stayed slower through late fall and into the holidays. Many buyers are taking their time, watching rates, or waiting for the right home rather than leaving the market.
For sellers listing this winter, that means fewer buyers touring each week. The buyers who are out in January and February tend to be serious, though, and that can work in your favor.
6. Homes Are Selling in About 26 Days
The average Fairfax County home spent 26 days on market in September 2026. That's slightly faster than the Northern Virginia average of 28 days and well ahead of the national average of 33 days.
Averages hide a wide range. Move-in-ready homes priced right often go under contract in the first week or two. Homes that start too high or need updates can take much longer.
If you're selling, the first two weeks bring the most traffic and attention. Getting the price and presentation right from day one usually works better than starting high and reducing later. Samantha's seller's guide walks through how to prepare.
7. Condos and Townhomes Are Moving Differently Than Detached Homes
Not every property type is changing at the same pace. NVAR reported that most of the region's inventory growth is coming from condos and townhomes. Fairfax County's 2026 assessments show a similar split. Average assessments rose 4.28% for single-family homes, 3.90% for townhomes, and 2.84% for condos.
For condo and townhome buyers, this may be the most room to negotiate in years. You may be able to ask for closing cost help, a home warranty, or repairs that sellers would have turned down a couple of years ago.
Detached homes are a different story in many price ranges. Supply is tighter, so competition for single-family homes can still feel a lot like it did last year.
8. Mortgage Rates Are the Biggest Variable
Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed rate was 7.18% for the week of November 5, 2026, down from 7.24% the week before. A year earlier, it was 6.22%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.57%, compared with 5.50% a year ago.
That increase of almost a full point is a big reason sales have slowed. On a $600,000 loan, the difference between 6.22% and 7.18% adds about $380 a month in principal and interest. Also keep an eye on the conforming loan limit. For 2026 it's $1,249,125 in high-cost areas like Fairfax County, and the 2027 limits are usually announced in late November.
Nobody can promise where rates will go next. If you're buying, get pre-approved, ask your lender about rate locks and buydowns, and build your budget around a payment you're comfortable with today.
9. Budget for Fairfax County Property Taxes
The Fairfax County Board of Supervisors adopted a real estate tax rate of $1.12 per $100 of assessed value for FY 2027, down from $1.1225. The new rate took effect July 1, 2026. Even with the small cut, the county estimated the average homeowner's annual bill would rise by about $337, because residential assessments went up an average of 4.31% in 2026.
Here's a quick example using 2026 average assessments and the base $1.12 rate. A single-family home assessed at $1,012,504 works out to about $11,340 a year. A townhome at $612,580 is about $6,861, and a condo at $387,560 is about $4,341. Some properties also pay district or service fees on top of the base rate.
If you own a home, your 2027 assessment notice typically arrives in late winter. If you're buying, include taxes in your monthly payment estimate from the start, not after you find the house.
10. What It All Means for Buyers and Sellers This Winter
For buyers, winter often brings less competition. More listings, fewer pending sales, and growing condo and townhome supply all point to more room to negotiate. If you find the right home, you don't have to wait for spring. Samantha's buyer's guide is a good place to start.
For sellers, the market still favors you, just less than before. Price carefully, prepare the home well, and plan for a little more time on market. If you need to buy and sell at the same time, the selling and buying at the same time page explains how to line up both moves so you only move once.
Monthly numbers usually come out in the middle of the following month, so watch for fresh data as winter goes on. For more Northern Virginia real estate tips and market updates, visit Samantha Bard's blog.
FAQs
Q: Are home prices still going up in Fairfax County?
A: Yes. The Fairfax County median sold price was $749,750 in September 2026, up 5.6% from a year earlier, based on Bright MLS data. Year to date through September, the median was $770,000, up 1.9%. Individual homes can still see price reductions, especially when they're overpriced or need work.
Q: Is the Fairfax County housing market slowing down?
A: Sales have slowed, but prices have not. New pending sales fell 18.7% year over year in September 2026, while the median sold price rose 5.6%. With roughly 2.6 months of supply, the market still leans toward sellers.
Q: Is winter a good time to buy a home in Fairfax County?
A: It can be. Winter usually brings fewer competing buyers, and there are more listings than a year ago, especially condos and townhomes. The right timing depends on your budget, your rate, and the homes available. Samantha Bard can walk you through current listings and help you decide.
Q: What is the Fairfax County real estate tax rate for 2027?
A: The FY 2027 rate is $1.12 per $100 of assessed value, down from $1.1225, effective July 1, 2026. On a home assessed at $750,000, the base county tax works out to about $8,400 a year. Some properties also pay additional district or service fees.
Q: What are mortgage rates right now?
A: Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed rate was 7.18% for the week of November 5, 2026, and the 15-year fixed averaged 6.57%. Rates change weekly, so check with a lender for today's quotes and ask about rate locks before you write an offer.
Ready to Make Your Move in Fairfax County?
If these numbers have you thinking about listing this spring or starting your home search, a quick conversation can help you see where you stand. Samantha Bard can run a pricing review for your home, set up a search built around your budget and rate, and explain what the latest data means for your part of Fairfax County. You'll always know where you stand and what happens next. Do you have time to talk this week?
Samantha Bard, REALTOR® | ABR | SRS
Coldwell Banker Realty
📞 (703) 298-2651 | ✉ samantha.bard@cbmove.com | 🌐 www.samanthabard.com
Sources: Bright MLS data for Fairfax County, September 2026; Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS® Market Statistics, September 2026 (Bright MLS data as of October 12, 2026); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, November 5, 2026; Fairfax County FY 2027 Adopted Budget and 2026 residential assessments; Federal Housing Finance Agency.
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